Linglong Tire (601966): Why Linglong is expected to become a global tire giant from a strategic perspective

Linglong Tire (601966): Why Linglong is expected to become a global tire giant from a strategic perspective

In discussing the investment value of Linglong Tire, we need to solve two logical issues, one is whether China can produce a global tire giant, and the other is to look at China and who will kill the siege and become the new representative of Chinese manufacturing.

When we put together the answers to these two questions, it can cause complications: Linglong will become the new global tire giant.

Regarding the first question, the comparison between Chinese tires and global tire counterparts, in our report “Linglong Tire Depth Four: Linglong VS Han Thai: Pulling Cocoons and Mining Core Competitiveness” and “Linglong Tire Depth Five: Global Tire Industry”There will be great benefits brought about by the integration in “Great Changes”. Here I will leave more pen and ink on the second question, that is why Linglong is far ahead in the domestic race.

1 strategy to win, from the choice of three tracks to see Linglong’s leading edge.

Chinese tire companies encountered three major choices in the development process: Track 1: All-steel and semi-steel tires, Track 2: Domestic market and overseas layout, Track 3: Matching and replacement.

Specifically, in 2000, tire companies faced the choice of developing all-steel tires or semi-steel tires; in 2008, they faced the environment of external trade frictions to choose whether to expand overseas; and the rise of independent brand cars is easy to grow in the future.Time will face the choice of developing supporting or replacing the market.

The choices of the above three different periods interact with each other and have caused the current differences of the tire companies. Based on the comparison of the above three tracks, we believe that Linglong makes timely replacements in the above three tracks and has corresponding capabilities.At present, it is at the core of the forefront of the industry. Due to the systemic 杭州桑拿网 nature of this corporate strategy, Linglong has a long lead position.

2 Whether domestic tire companies can breed a global tire giant The domestic tire industry is in a special period, which can provide favorable conditions for the Chinese tire industry to breed a global tire giant.

Specifically, it is reflected in the following aspects: 1) In terms of technology, tire technology is in a declining period, and Chinese companies can afford value to seize the market. At the same time, the market share of foreign giants is declining; 2) The automotive industry has completed its transfer to China, The advantages of tire companies in the region, 3) due to the later establishment of factories, domestic enterprises scale equipment advantages; 4) due to equipment life, domestic tire companies are about to usher in the reshuffle cycle, some companies are expected to further strengthen; 5) Compared with overseas companies, domestic companies have obvious cost advantages in terms of labor.

3 Profit forecast We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-21 will be 16 respectively.

49, 19.

08 and 22.

57 trillion, EPS is 1.

37, 1.

59 and 1.

88 yuan / share, corresponding to PE of 15.

28, 13.

21 and 11.

16 times, maintaining the “highly recommended” level.

4 Risks: Trade friction impacts, exchange rate changes, changes in raw material and product prices, increased industry competition, less-than-expected cumulative expansion, market expansion beyond expectations, product quality risks, production base safety and environmental protection, and political turmoil risks.

Xinhua Insurance (601336) Interim Review: Steady Value Growth Expects New Strategic Layout

Xinhua Insurance (601336) Interim Review: Steady Value Growth Expects New Strategic Layout

The tax reduction promoted the growth of performance, and the remaining margin steadily increased the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 1H10.5 billion, YoY + 8北京洗浴会所 1.

8%, the increase is mainly driven by the interest rate rebate (accounting for settlement + 190,000 yuan) and the recovery of investment under the new tax reform rules. The net profit growth rate after deduction is 49.

1%.

The remaining margin is 2083 trillion, +6 earlier.

5%.

We expect 2019-21 EPS to be 4 respectively.

00 yuan, 4.

63 yuan and 5.

30 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Long-term new single-month growth rate, health insurance steady growth The company’s total premium in 19H1 was 74 billion yuan, YoY + 9%, of which new long-term insurance single ring was 11.7 billion, YoY + 0.

9%, the growth rate of 18% in the earlier 19Q1 has actually narrowed. It is estimated that the new long-term insurance orders in the 19Q2 decreased by 18%. We believe that this is mainly due to the decline in fee incentives and the decline in business promotion efforts brought about by the general change.

However, the business structure and type of insurance structure continued to be optimized. Long-term insurance transactions continued to shrink by 66%, and new orders for long-term insurance accounted for 99.

9% high level; 65 trillion new orders for health insurance and long-term insurance, YoY + 3.

4%, accounting for 55 new long-term orders.

7%, year on year +1.

4pct; It is estimated that the scale of the additional insurance 19H1 is about 26 trillion, a year-on-year increase of + 38%. The growth momentum is strong, and the acceptance of the cardiovascular and cerebrovascular additional insurance is expected to be high.

The surrender rate continues to the excellent level of 19Q1, 19H1 is only 1%, and only 3pct needs to be improved significantly.

Advancing the development of the army against the trend, expecting the steady release of production capacity. After undergoing natural changes in the first quarter and the industry’s cleanup actions, the company’s investment in organizational development was intensified in 19Q2, and the size of individual insurance agents reached 38 at the end of 19H1.

60,000, a year-on-year increase of +15.

6%, earlier +4.

3%, the scale reached a record high.

The average monthly qualified manpower is 140,000, YoY + 4.

9%, the average monthly pass rate remained above 35%, reaching 38.

8%.

The monthly per capita comprehensive production capacity was affected by new orders and fell by 13.

8% to 4472 yuan.

We believe that a sufficient team resource reserve is expected to gradually release production capacity, and we look forward to the development space after the incentive system is in place.

The profit margin continues to drag down the growth of NBV, and the positive effect of investment has gradually shown that the company’s 19H1 NBV is 58.

900 million, YoY-8.

7%, mainly due to a substantial increase in margin12.

5 points to 37.

9%, we believe that the high current price annuity insurance value rate promoted by the starters is gradually caused.

In contrast, the new order growth (YoY + 21) used to calculate NBV.

5%) pull effect is weak.

In the first half of the year, the EV was 1914 trillion, a year-on-year increase of +15.

6%, earlier +10.

5%, of which the contribution of NBV to EV growth weakened 0.

8 points to 3.4%, while the negative bias in return on investment pressure was relieved, from -1 in the same period last year.

43% improved significantly to +1.

58%, positive investment effects are gradually emerging.

The rate of return remains stable, looking forward to the new strategic layout, maintaining the “purchase” rating of the company ‘s annualized net investment rate of return continuously stable at the level of 5%, and the total investment rate of return fluctuating slightly.

1 point to 4.

7%.

The company flexibly adjusted its allocation to suit the market environment, and increased the allocation of long-term bonds in the down period of interest rates4.

4 points to 43.

7%.

The EVPS is expected to be 64 in 2019-21.

78 yuan, 75.

11 yuan and 86.

93 yuan 佛山桑拿网(previous average 65.

27 yuan, 76.

44 yuan and 89.

25 yuan), corresponding P / EV is 0.

79x, 0.

68x and 0.

59x.

The company leaders are in place and we look forward to the new strategic layout. We maintain the company in 20191.

1-1.

2xP / EV, target price range 71.

twenty three?
77.

74 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: the advancement of the insurance business is weaker than expected, the downward interest rate brings potential risk of spread damage, and fluctuations in the equity market lead to uncertainty in investment income

Xinquan (603179): Downstream performance tightly awaits market stabilization and recovery

Xinquan (603179): Downstream performance tightly awaits 成都桑拿网 market stabilization and recovery

Event: On April 27, 2019, Xinquan shares disclosed the quarterly report for the first quarter of 2019.

The company achieved operating income in the first quarter of 20197.

54 ppm, a ten-year average of 22.

42%.

Realize net profit attributable to mother 0.

54 ‰, 28 years ago.

62%.

Net profit after deduction is 0.

5.3 billion, 28 years ago.

39%.

Opinion: Downstream demand continues to be weak and operating results are under pressure.

Affected by continued weakness in the automotive market, Geely’s sales in the first quarter of 2019 fell by 5%, and SAIC’s passenger car sales fell by 17.
.

5%.

GAC Fick is a joint venture brand customer of the company. The sales volume in the first quarter of 2019 was 41%.

32%.

Consumption in the Chinese automotive market has 重庆耍耍网 increased significantly, sales of core customers such as Geely and SAIC have increased, and short-term pressure on business operations has been transmitted.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company’s operating income and net profit both showed an increase.

Fund-raising projects have been launched one after another, and production capacity has been guaranteed to grow steadily.

In June 2018, the company’s convertible bonds were issued smoothly, and the Changzhou and Changsha bases progressed smoothly.

In April 2019, the company’s public issuance plan was reviewed and approved by the CSRC, and the construction projects of Xi’an and Ningbo production bases were advanced smoothly to ensure the space for future development of the company.

The new production capacity of the company was released in an orderly manner. The supporting needs of customers such as Geely and SAIC were adequately guaranteed, and the company had a solid foundation for growth.

The company plans to build a production base in Malaysia to cultivate the Southeast Asian market and promote business development.

New models escorted core customers, and new products were released to improve profitability.

The passenger car business module is the main driving force for the company’s high growth.

As Jiaji, Xingyue and other new car sales climbed, core customers such as Geely tried to stabilize and rebound.

The new Tiggo 8 is coming soon, and Chery is expected to maintain steady growth.

The company actively explores new energy vehicle business and enhances its competitiveness in the segment of interior and exterior trim parts.

New external products such as bumpers are supplied to joint ventures such as Guangfei Ke. The construction of related production bases has been steadily progressing. The contribution of new products is expected to gradually increase, and the performance of passenger car business will gradually improve.

Earnings forecast and rating: Considering the impact of continued weakness in the automotive market, we lowered the company’s operating performance forecast.

We estimate that the company’s operating income from 2019 to 2021 will be 38.

900 million, 45.

6 ppm and 50.

500 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company is 3.

300 million, 4.

100 million and 4.

6 trillion, corresponding to a diluted EPS of 1.

46 yuan, 1.
81 yuan and 2.
02 yuan.

Leveraging strong autonomy, the leading decorative parts have opened up channels for improvement. The company is a strong independent core supplier. We maintain the company’s “overweight” rating.

Risk factors: higher-than-expected risks in the automotive market; risks of fluctuations in raw material prices; slower-than-expected risk of new base construction.

Anjing Food (603345): Price increase and scale effect support sustained high growth

Anjing Food (603345): Price increase and scale effect support sustained high growth

Event: The company released three quarterly reports for 2019, realizing revenue, net profit attributable to mothers, and net profit attributable to non-mothers to 34.

93, 2.

38, 2.

1.3 billion, an increase of 18 each year.

8%, 21.

25%, 22.

12%, single third quarter income, net profit attributable to mothers, net profit attributable to non-mothers is 11.

58, 0.

73, 0.

64 ppm, an increase of 16 each year.

59%, 34.

95%, 25.

56%.

The single and third quarter profits exceeded expectations.

Revenue has maintained a steady growth, and the increase in prices is expected to increase the advance receipts: the company’s first three quarters of noodles, meat, surimi, and alternative products revenue were 9 respectively.

63, 8.

60, 13.

03, 3.

60 trillion, the same increase of 23.

33%, 4.

26%, 22.

67%, 33.

45%, all businesses basically maintained the growth trend in the first half of the year, the rapid growth of egg dumplings, thousand-sheet tofu led to the continued growth of oriented products.

In the first three quarters of the first three quarters, East China grew by 12% and continued to maintain steady growth. North China benefited from the increased production capacity of the Liaoning plant, and the accumulation of deliveries accelerated to 39.

41%, the Southwest market conversion market carefully cultivated single-quarter growth of 47 in the third quarter.

57%, a significant increase.

In the first three quarters, the supermarket sales channel increased by 7.

15%, which is faster than the first half of the year, and it is related to the better response to the listing of locks in the third quarter.

The company responded to rising costs in the third quarter. Since September 1, the ex-factory price of most hot pot materials has been raised by 2-5 points indirectly. The increase in prices is expected to drive orders.

Advance receipts at the end of the third quarter increased 合肥夜网 significantly to 7.

5.8 billion, a month-on-month increase of 2 each year.

940,000 yuan, it can be judged that after the price increase on September 1, the order demand is still strong.

The increase in raw materials affects the gross profit margin, and the increase in the efficiency of the three fees drives the increase in net profit margin: the company’s gross profit margin in the third quarter was 23.

9% down 1.

7%, of which the cost per ton of surimi has increased steadily. The proportion of pig consumption after the adjustment of the formula is very small. When the price of chicken fell in July, a large number of purchases locked up some costs in the third quarter.The rise leads to a decline in gross profit margin.

Tax rate is 0.

86% slightly decreased by 0.

04%, sales expense ratio, management expense ratio and financial expense ratio are 11 respectively.92%, 4.

32%, -0.

26%, a decrease of 0.

9%, 0.

2%, 1.

0%, the scale effect continues to highlight, driving the net interest rate to rise to 0.

9 points to 6.

3%.

The net profit in the first three quarters increased by zero.

1% to 6.

8%.

Profit forecast and grade: In the second half of the year, the company launched a 240g lock-up package with supplements to the blank price of the supermarket channel, which has been promoted nationwide. At present, the response has been very good. The company is actively packing up to respond to supply and demand and prepare for the peak season.

Finally, the growth of chicken raw materials in the fourth quarter, the low price of seven months can lock up some of the cost in the fourth quarter, the cost of pork and surimi raw materials is basically locked, the fourth quarter is still under certain cost pressure, and the company continues to raise prices.Responses.

We expect annual revenue to increase by 18% and profit by 20%. Revenue and profit in the fourth quarter alone will maintain a steady double-digit growth.

Henan is expected to start production at the end of this year, and Wuxi’s noodle capacity will be put into operation after the Spring Festival. The Hubei plant will be put into operation in the middle of next year. Capacity release will help double-digit growth next year.

We are optimistic about the company’s long-term development and potential to become a leading large-scale food company in the quick-freezing industry. We give 35 times PE next year with a target price of 61.

6 yuan, increase the level.

Risks suggest sales fall short of expectations, chicken meat costs increase more than expected

Ningbo Huaxiang (002048) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Quarterly Report Meets Expected Profit Quality High

Ningbo Huaxiang (002048) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Quarterly Report Meets Expected Profit Quality High

Core Views The company achieved revenue 42 in the third quarter of 2019.

1 ‰, +11 a year.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

5 ‰, +22 a year.

3%, in line with our expectations.

The company’s first three quarter results maintained rapid growth, mainly due to the higher than expected net profit contribution from the hot-formed metal parts business. At the same time, the overseas subsidiary Germany Huaxiang reduced losses as planned.Entering a new growth period, raising the EPS forecast for 2019/20/21 to 1.

45/1.

74/1.

99 yuan, giving the company an estimate of 15 times PE in 2019 with a target price of 21.

8 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

   The company’s third quarter 2019 results are in line with expectations.

The company achieved revenue of 42 in the third quarter of 2019.

1 ‰, +11 a year.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 2.

5 ‰, +22 a year.

3%, generally in line with our expectations.

The company achieved revenue of 117 in the first three quarters of 2019.

4 ‰, +9 for ten years.

33%; net profit attributable to mother 6.

700 million, +32 a year.

89%.

The company achieved contrarian growth between its operating income and the return of its parent net profit, mainly due to the company’s new projects in Changchun Huaxiang’s hot-formed metal structural parts, which have been put into production successively, and climbed smoothly; the subsidiary, Germany’s Huaxiang, reduced losses as planned.

  In the third quarter, the company’s operating efficiency improved, with a gross profit margin of 22%, an increase of 0 from the previous quarter.

6pcts; total cost rate is 11.

7%, a decrease of 1pcts from the previous month.

   2019 will continue to benefit from the Volkswagen new model cycle.

FAW-Volkswagen and Shanghai Volkswagen are the company’s largest customers. In 2018, the company’s initialization of these OEMs accounted for 30% of the total operating income.

2%.

In 2018, FAW-Volkswagen and Shanghai Volkswagen strongly launched a new round 杭州夜网论坛 of product cycles. Among them, FAW-Volkswagen’s 2018 and 2019 Bora, Tange, Tan Yue, Sagitar and Magotan and other “explosive” new models have been listed. The company mainly supports the above models.Parts and components such as interior and exterior trim parts and body structure parts.

In the first three quarters of 2019, the company’s gradually operating net cash flow was 10.

8.3 billion; the company is expected to continue to benefit from the volume of the entire Volkswagen model in the fourth quarter, and the performance promotion will continue to exert its strength.

   The thermoforming project increased its performance, and German Huaxiang continued to reduce losses.

From January to June 2019, the nine thermoforming production lines of the subsidiary Changchun Huaxiang successively mass-produced, capital expenditures were basically completed, and a new replacement cycle began.

Changchun Huaxiang’s hot-formed metal parts are expected to contribute about 1.2 billion US dollars in additional revenue, and most of the products of hot-formed metal parts will be welded with cold stamped parts to complete the assembly of supporting customers, and the profit level will be fully improved, and the investment dessert period will begin.

  In 2018, the company established a special team to strengthen the management of Huaxiang in Germany; in the first half of 2019, the allowance of Huaxiang in Germany decreased by about 0.

300 million.

The company’s semi-annual report shows that the company plans to speed up its overseas business to reverse the pace of losses, and will actively carry out “reorganization”, “sale” and “replacement” schemes without affecting the replacement of the OEM supporting relationship and the global supporting corporate strategy.Reverse the distorted passive situation overseas as soon as possible.

   Risk factors: Automotive consumption is less than expected; raw material prices are rising; overseas business turns losses into less than expected.   Investment suggestion: The company’s contribution to the profit of hot-formed metal parts in the first three quarters exceeded expectations. The subsidiary Huaxiang of Germany is expected to continue to reduce losses and raise its EPS forecast for 2019/20/21 to 1.

45/1.

74/1.

99 yuan (previous forecast was 1.

36/1.

65/1.

84 yuan).

The company’s products are globally competitive, supporting high-quality customers such as Volkswagen, Mercedes-Benz and BMW; the new business of hot-formed metal parts production lines has gradually reached production and began to contribute performance; the German subsidiary continued to reduce losses and operated well, giving the company 15 times 2019PE estimate, target price 21.

8 yuan, maintain “Buy” rating.

Zhenjiang Shares (603507) Interim Report Comments: Increase in Production Capacity, Gross Margin Extend, Interim Report Performance Is Less Than Expected-Han Weiqi

Zhenjiang Shares (603507) Interim Report Comments: Increase in Production Capacity, Gross Margin Extend, Interim Report Performance Is Less Than Expected-Han Weiqi

Key productivity increases, gross margins decrease, and performance is below expectations.

The company’s operating income in the first half of 20196.

450,000 yuan, ranking a significant increase of 73 in the same period last year.

44%, net profit attributable to mother is -2108.

80,000 yuan, a decrease of 155 compared with the same period last year.

11%, there is a possibility, performance is less than expected.

The initial cause of the decline in the company’s performance was that some key procedures such as paint painting fell short of expectations, limiting the company’s capacity utilization rate of wind power equipment products, which led to the company’s gross profit margin reducing to 16 in the first half of the year.

66%, a decrease of 6 over the same period last year.

74 units.

The new production line and new technology need to be optimized, and the gross profit margin will be under pressure 重庆耍耍网 during the year.

With the gradual landing of the company’s investment and production capacity, the company’s expenses increased greatly, of which the depreciation of fixed assets increased by 1,725.

40,000 yuan, an annual increase of 81.

1%, the expansion of the scale led to an increase in staff budget expenditure of 4783.

50,000 yuan, an increase of 73 in ten years.

2%, interest expenses increased by 1788.

20 thousand, an annual increase of 183.

9%.

It is expected that the coating line that affects the company’s actual production capacity will be commissioned within the year, and will be put into production one after another. The optimization of the new production line and the new process will be completed. The company will gradually increase the delivery capacity and reduce the cost ratio. The gross profit margin will usher in marginal improvement.In the first half of the year, the gross profit margin in 2019 is still under pressure.

There are sufficient orders in hand, and the revenue maintains a high growth trend.

The company currently has sufficient orders in hand, as of the end of the reporting period7.

8 billion, of which wind power equipment product orders5.

690,000 yuan, 0 orders for photovoltaic equipment products.

$ 8.6 billion in new business orders for CSP products1.

2.1 billion.

The amount of orders in hand is significantly higher than the same period last year.

With a scale of 2 ppm, the company’s revenue is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth.

The company intends to repurchase shares for equity incentive.

The company plans to repurchase shares with its own funds or self-raised funds within the next 12 months, with a repurchase scale of no less than 30 million yuan and no more than 60 million yuan.

The repurchase price does not exceed 25 yuan / share.

The company’s repurchased shares are planned for equity incentive / employee shareholding plans. This change not only enhances the cohesion of employees, but also demonstrates the company’s confidence in future development.

Investment Advice.

During the period of rapid expansion of the company, there were some shortcomings in production management capabilities. The pace of cost growth was faster than the increase in production capacity, which has caused pressure on the recent gross profit margin.

We set the company’s net profit forecast for 2019-2021 to 1, respectively.

8.3 billion, 2.

10 billion, 2.

3.7 billion down to 0.

55 billion, 1.

3.8 billion, 1.9.1 billion, corresponding to 0 EPS.

43,1.

08, 1.

49 yuan, corresponding to PE, 38, 15, 11 times.

With reference to the company’s historical estimation level and considering the improvement of future performance, we give the company an estimate of 36-44 times in 2019, and the corresponding price range should be 15.

48-18.

92 yuan, the company’s current price of 16.

35 yuan, investment rating downgraded from “buy” to “overweight.”

risk warning.

The investment capacity was lower than expected, and overseas business execution was lower than expected.

Jiechang Drive (603583) Interim Report Comments: Performance in line with expectations, maintain Overweight rating

Jiechang Drive (603583) Interim Report Comments: Performance in line with expectations, maintain Overweight rating

2019H1 net profit increased by 42.

63% of companies released their 2019 Interim Report on the evening of August 26, and achieved operating income in 2019H16.

5.1 billion (+36.

01%), achieving a net profit of 1.

5.1 billion (+42.

63%), deducting non-net profit1.

2.9 billion (+22.

97%), corresponding to EPS 0.

85 yuan, the performance is in line with expectations.

The growth of the company’s performance continues with the prosperity of emerging industries in the upstream and downstream, as well as competitive barriers built 武汉夜网论坛 by factors such as excellent product quality, leading research and development levels, and high-viscosity and quality customer base.

We maintain the company’s 19-21 net profit3.

19/3.

99/4.

The forecast of $ 9.9 billion is lower than that of the comparable company, and we lower our target price by 43.

20-50.

40 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Gross profit margin dropped by 0.

23pct, deducting non-net interest rate fell by 2.

1pct’s gross profit margin for 2019H1 is 41.

88%, a decline of 0 every year.

23pct, the net interest rate is 23.

14%, up 1 every year.

07pct, deducting non-net interest rate 19.

86%, falling by 2 every year.

1pct.

The 2019H1 sales expense ratio increases by 1 each year.

84 points, main budget sales commission (+52.

3%), shipping costs (+62.

7%) and tariff 北京桑拿洗浴保健 increase (454 million, compared with 0 in the same period last year); the management expense rate increases by 0 every year.

76pct, mainly from the increase of equity incentive expenses (11.04 million yuan); research and development expenses increase by 65 each year.

06%, mainly from product upgrade R & D expansion and R & D staff budget increase (+90.

7%).

The company’s gross profit margin remained basically stable in the first half of the year, and the expense ratio increased significantly. Trade frictions have intensified since May. The impact on the company needs to continue to be tracked in the second half of the year.

Operating cash flow has deteriorated The company’s net cash flow from operating activities in 2019H1 was 65.86 million yuan, compared with 77.49 million yuan in the same period last year, a decrease of 15.

01%.

The reasons for the decrease in the company’s net operating cash flow are: (1) The increase in cash paid for purchasing goods and receiving labor services.

60% (2) Increase in cash received for sales of goods and services 33.

07%, mainly due to changes in the company’s sales credit conditions.(3) The highest tax paid is 93.71 million yuan, an annual increase of 126.

3%.

Inventory surplus remains high The company’s inventory surplus in 2019H1 reaches 1.

92 trillion, lower than 1 at the end of 2018.

96 ppm, with a stock item remaining of 1.

310,000 yuan (97.22 million yuan at the end of 2018), the balance of products in process is 4.55 million yuan (39.79 million yuan at the end of 2018).

The company’s inventory balance has remained at a high level. We believe that the product is mainly classified as a taxation list of Sino-US trade friction of 25%. The company should start stocking in advance in response to the needs of some customers. This situation is expected to be maintained in the first half of the year.

We maintain the company’s profit forecast for 19-21, and maintain the “overweight” rating. We maintain the company’s profit forecast for 19-21.

We expect the company to achieve revenue in 2019-2021.

95/20.

37/25.

8.9 billion yuan, achieving net profit attributable to mothers3.

19/3.

99/4.

99 ppm, corresponding to EPS of 1.

80, 2.

25 and 2.

81 yuan, corresponding to 19, 15, 12 times PE.

The average PE of the comparable company in 2019 is 27 times (the original value is 31 times), and the company is given a PE conversion of 24-28 times in 2019 (downscaled), corresponding to a target price of 43 in 2019.

20-50.

40 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk warning: The export volume of overseas markets is lower than expected; the trade friction between China and the United States has caused the export volume to be lower than expected.

The market development of smart home control systems has fallen short of expectations.

Increased competition in the industry has led to a decline in gross profit margin.

Capacity expansion was less than expected.

Depth-Company-Shiji Information (002153): Success Probability of Internationalization Strategy Increases

Depth * Company * Shiji Information (002153): The probability of success in the internationalization strategy is increasing

Recently, the company was invited for the first time to participate in the world’s largest hotel industry technology exhibition HITEC2019 in the United States, showing a series of series and platform-level technology solutions.

The company’s internationalization strategy is advancing steadily, and the outlook is good. We maintain an overweight rating.

Key points of support level Breakthrough in international business success opportunities.

From the three dimensions of industry trend, market strategy, and product layout, it predicts the company’s internationalization layout success probability breakthrough.

1. The downstream industry has an international foundation.

The hotel, retail, and catering IT sectors in which the company is located are essentially part of the global consumer industry industry chain. The ultimate user reach is the C-end individual. The difference in consumption attributes is not obvious. The industry itself has an international basis.

2. Market strategy keeps pace with the global layout of customers.

The company follows the global layout of such star-rated hotels, chain supermarkets, restaurant alliances, 北京夜网 etc., and adopts the market expansion strategy of Asia first, then Europe, and then the United States.In 2018, it successively acquired StayNTouch, a hotel information system provider,A snapshot of the data analysis service provider, successfully established an excellent international management team of more than 500 people.

3. Cloud-based products promote platformization to cover global customers.

Fully promote the cloud transformation of products, such as cloud POS “INFRASYS CLOUD” has been recognized by customers such as Peninsula and Intercontinental.

Internationalization is the guarantee of incremental performance.

In the long run, the company’s domestic customer penetration rate will eventually be encountered. Therefore, the best way to obtain incremental income is to optimize the long-term renewal method and the development of new overseas customer groups. The company’s use of SaaS to acquire customers in the global market is the best for long-term performance growth.Protection.

2019H1 business is progressing smoothly.

2019Q1 revenue growth rate is 32%, the best single quarter performance since 2017, 19Q1 single quarter gross profit margin was 48.

9% was basically flat.

In 2019H1, the company’s business is steadily advancing. On the basis of continuous growth in the income side, the performance of the net profit side promotes super-period performance.

Estimated for 2019?
Net profit in 2021 is 5.

59/6.

78/8.

21 trillion, EPS is 0.

52/0.

64/0.

77 yuan (considering the increase in management and R & D expenses, 2019?
Reduced by 1 in 2020?
12%), corresponding to 67/55/45 times PE.

From the PS estimation method of the cloud computing industry, the corresponding PS in 2019 is only about 11 times, and there is still room for improvement.

We are optimistic about the advancement of internationalization strategy. In the future, gross margin growth will continue to increase, and we maintain an overweight rating.

The main risks faced by the rating were lower than expected in the development and promotion of new products; progress in internationalization was worse than expected.

Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233): Filament leader with stable performance in line with expectations

Tongkun Co., Ltd. (601233): Filament leader with stable performance in line with expectations

The company announced the 2019 杭州夜网 third quarter report.

The company achieved operating income of 126 in the third quarter of 2019.

0.8 billion, net profit attributable to mother 10.

6 billion (at least -7.

19%, +22.

01%), deducting non-attributed net profit of 10.

5.3 billion (previously -7.

19%, +22.

01%), and performance was in line with expectations.

In terms of expenses, Q3 sales management financial expenses were basically stable, and R & D expenses3.

At a record high of 7.8 billion, the company continues to increase investment in new varieties and new equipment, and does not rule out the completion of sales of subsequent R & D intermediates to offset R & D expenses (similar to 18Q4).

Demand in the peak season is slightly flat, and the filaments still maintain good profits.

Q3 is the traditional peak season for the polyester industry chain, but due to the internal and external environment, demand in this peak season is slightly flat.

PTA’s Q3 accumulated warehouse profits fell, and the average Q3 spread was 1091 yuan / ton (excluding tax, the same applies hereinafter), which was a decrease of 15 from Q2.

76%; filament still benefited from the industry’s low inventory, POY Q3 spreads averaged 1478 yuan / ton, an increase of 13 from Q2.

03%.

Since PTA and PX still have new production capacity, we are relatively optimistic about the profit performance of filament.

Q3 added 120 new polyester production capacity, leading the consolidation of solid.

Q3’s Hengbang Phase IV (30 access points), Hengyou (60 access points), and Hengteng Phase IV (30 access points) were put into operation in sequence, increasing the aggregate production capacity by 120 instead.

Q3 company’s POY, FDY, DTY output is 93.

49, 28.

41, 18.

Nominal 88, an increase of 4 from Q2.

84%, 3.

65%, 1.

78%, through the gradual release of new production capacity, the subsequent growth of filament production is highly certain.

The company will still maintain steady capital expenditure and capacity increase in the future.

(1) The 2.3 billion convertible bonds have been reviewed and approved by the CSRC. Hengchao 50 has invested in projects to accelerate construction and is expected to be put into production next September.

(2) Zhejiang Petrochemical is expected to be officially put into production in the first half of next year, and the company will obtain 20% equity income, as well as PX and MEG supply advantages.

(3) The company has 500 PTA and 120 filament projects in Rudong to build a new integrated filament production base.

We forecast the company’s net profit attributable to mothers in 2019/20/2129.

75/41.

52/43.

6.1 billion, EPS 1.

61/2.

25/2.

36 yuan, corresponding to the current price of PE 7.

9/5.7/5.

4 times (If all convertible bonds in 18 years are converted, it is estimated to be about 9.

1/6.

5/6.

2x), maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk reminder: sharp changes in oil prices, decline in polyester demand

Jinhe Industry (002597) Interim Review: Sucralose’s Profitability Meets Expectations Highlights Dingyuan Project Supports Long-term Growth

Jinhe Industry (002597) Interim Review: Sucralose’s Profitability Meets Expectations Highlights Dingyuan Project Supports Long-term Growth
Investment Highlights: The company released its semi-annual report for 2019: operating income for the first half of the year19.7.8 billion (-12% year-on-year.3%), net profit attributable to mother 4.10,000 yuan (-26% year-on-year.1%), net profit after returning to the mother.8.3 billion (-25% year-on-year.3%), of which the operating income in the second quarter was 10.690,000 yuan (-4% compared to the same period last year).4%, +17.6%), net profit attributable to mother 2.2.1 billion (-12% year-on-year.2%, +22.1%), net profit after returning to the mother 2.2.2 billion (Year-on-year.0% quarter-on-quarter +37.9%), the performance was in line with expectations.In terms of period expenses, the company’s R & D expenditure increased by 34.7 million yuan each year, and financial expenses decreased by 21.52 million yuan.Q2 R & D budget increased by 15.69 million yuan, and financial expenses decreased by 8.83 million yuan.The company’s gross profit margin for the first half of the year was 33.1%, falling by 1 every year.5 pct; Q2 gross margin 34.6%, an increase of 3 from the previous month.5 pct. Performance was in line with expectations, Q2 revenue and net profit improved month-on-month.Reporting intermediates, the company’s fine chemicals realized operating income9.82 ppm, a ten-year increase of 5.5%, gross margin 46.5%, an increase of 4 per year.0 pct. The increase in operating income and gross profit margin of fine chemicals was mainly due to the increase in the price of Ansaimi products, the increase in the production capacity of sucralose, the decrease in costs, and the decline in the prices of major raw materials.Basic chemical industry realized sales income 8.92 ppm, a ten-year average of 18.6%, gross margin of 20.2%, a decline of 13 per year.3 pct.The decrease in the revenue and gross profit margin of basic chemical products was mainly due to the decline in the industry’s business climate, mainly such as the average price of hydrogen peroxide / formaldehyde / concentrated nitric acid / liquid ammonia in the first half of the year at 1042/1328/1593/2955 yuan / ton, which can reduce at least 35% / 10% / 5% / 22%.On a month-on-month basis, the company’s revenue and net profit rose month-on-month. The 1,500-tonne sucralose supplementary capacity in fine chemicals started full production in March, contributing major increases. In terms of basic chemicals, the average prices of major products such as hydrogen peroxide 北京桑拿洗浴保健 / formaldehyde / concentrated nitric acid / liquid ammoniaThey were 1153/1412/1665/2973 yuan / ton, up by about 24 from the previous month.5% / 13.8% / 10.5% / 1.3%.In addition, the Spring Festival in the first quarter has a certain impact on sales, and the sales of major products in the second quarter have increased from the previous quarter. Sucralose accelerates production expansion and replicates the success of acesulfame.The company’s sucralose put into production of 1,500 tons of new capacity in the first quarter, transferred to fixed assets of about 96 million yuan in the first half of the year, and currently has a capacity of 3,000 tons.The overall contribution of the sucralose project in the first half of the year was approximately 1.100 million, outstanding profitability.According to the latest EIA information, 夜来香体验网 the company will invest about 1 billion U.S. dollars to continue to expand its 5,000-ton capacity. After the expansion is completed, the designed capacity will reach 8,000 tons / year, far exceeding the existing potential.The company rapidly expands its market share through technology, scale, and cost advantages to obtain industry pricing rights, replicating the success of Ansaimi.Currently, aspartame uses 66 standards, 20 acesulfame, and 30 sucralose. The company actively promotes the development of acesulfame, sucralose use standards are set, and there is room for doubling the application area. The Dingyuan base has been put into production one after another, further promoting the company’s transformation and development into fine chemicals and new materials.The first phase of the company’s Dingyuan project has an annual output of 4 inserts of submicron chloride and an annual output of 1 of furfural. The main civil works of the 30MW biomass boiler cogeneration and wastewater treatment projects have been capped on time, of which the biomass cogeneration project has been completed inThe grid-connected power generation test run was implemented in July 2019. Urea chloride and furfural have been put into trial operation.The Dingyuan base project further extends to the development of upstream and upstream raw materials and realizes the vertical integration and integration of the industrial chain, thereby further exerting cost advantages and improving comprehensive competitiveness.At the same time, the company will extend to the furfural, chloride, diketene and other industrial chains in the future. For example, furfural will extend to furan series intermediates. Chloride can be used to prepare high-efficiency disinfectants, chloride chloride, etc .; Diketene can be used to prepare the preservative sodium dehydroacetate, Pharmaceutical intermediate 4-chloroacetoacetic acid / methyl ester, etc.In addition, the company cultivates emerging projects through the establishment of industrial funds, and its product structure will continue to be enriched in the future, which will further promote the company’s transformation and development into fine chemicals and new materials. Share repurchases are used to motivate employees and demonstrate long-term development confidence.The company launched a phase of core employee stock ownership plan, raising the maximum size of funds to 1.02 million, participating in the company’s directors (excluding independent directors), supervisors, senior management personnel, middle-level core management personnel and business technology backbones, the total number of not more than 755 people, including directors, supervisors and senior management personnel a total of 15 people.The source of the stock is the company’s shares repurchased by the company’s special account for repurchase. The price of the repurchased shares purchased by the employee holding plan is 16 yuan / share.The implementation of the employee stock ownership plan is conducive to establishing and improving the company’s and employee’s benefit sharing mechanism, achieving the consistency of the interests of the company, shareholders and employees, promoting long-term and stable development; fully mobilizing the enthusiasm and creativity of employees, and attracting and retaining outstanding management personnelAnd business backbones to improve staff cohesion and competitiveness.At the same time, in order to increase the enthusiasm of employees to participate in this employee stock ownership plan, the company’s controlling shareholder Jinrui Investment, one of the actual controllers, Mr. Yang Le promised: If the holders participating in this employee stock ownership plan make up, Jinrui Investment,Mr. Yang Le will make up the replacement of his principal. Investment suggestion: Maintain “Buy” rating and maintain profit forecast. It is expected that net profit will be returned to mother in 2019-21.00, 11.53, 13.20 trillion, EPS is 1.61, 2.06, 2.36 yuan, corresponding PE is 12X, 10X, 8X. Risk Warning: Project put into production and promotion is less than expected; competition in the sweetener industry is intensified; product prices fall